B6 _ CASTLEGAR NEWS, January 4, 198)

‘Economists s

By KRISTIN GOFF
NEW ‘YORK (AP) —
The United States

by some on Wall Street to
express the economic policies
f Pres-

outlook for 1981 may strike a
familiar chord. As they did
for 1979 and 1980, most
economic soothsayers see a
discouraging outlook: for. the
U.S, economy this year.

Continued nigh inflation,
even higher unemployment
and either recession or very
little economic growth early
in the - year: bales ‘widely
predicted... .c~¢

But many economists
point out; that-making this
year’s forecast is even trick-
jer than usual. :

The reason? In a word
“Reaganomics,” a erin used

oN }

of
ident Ronald Reagan.

"On Jan. 20 the federal”

government will undergo the
biggest change in economic
philosophy in 48 years,” says
Michael Evans, a Washing-
ton:based ec ie’ Lorecasi-
er, who believes Reagan's
promised tax and budget cuts
will help the economy avert
renewed recession.

Others are calculating
that significant compromise
between campaign promises
and eventual tax and budget
changes are likely, even
given the more conservative
bent to the new Congress.

Magic number ¥
12 in 1981 contr

VANCOUVER (CP} —
With consumer prices stand-

ing more than 11 per’ cent

higher than a year ago, the
magic number for contract
negotiations in B.C, this year
is 12,

Most unions with master
agreements expiring this
year view 12-per-cent wage
increases as just the begin-
ning. Those’ coming out of
two-. or three-year agree-
ments are more likely to
shoot for 15 per cent, say
labor analysts,

‘A recent example: Top
tradesmen will make $35,000
or more, barring layoffs in
1983, under terms of a
three-year contract just rati-
fied between eight Vancou-
ver area United Steelwork-
ers of America locals and the
Metal Industries Association,

‘The association says the
contract provides an increase
of 14 per cent immediately,
11 pér cent Jan. 1, 1982, and
nine per cent one year later,
for a total of 84 per cent.

A top tradesman’s hour-
ly rate now is $18.55, In 1982

- it goes to $15.05 and when
the agreement concludes in

* omist with the International
Woodworkers of America,

Small businessmen getting

says the union's need to be
itive in

And they point out that re-
cessions in European coun-
tries and continued high in-*
flation and interest rates in
the U.S. pose serious ob-
atacles to any quick improve-_
ment in the economy.
MQRE PESSIMISTIC

Smith, Daraey, 1
ham and Co, looks for. re
newed recession in the first’

pessimistic than ‘most, the
investmient house looks for

thé vaiue of total output of
goods and services in the
U.S. — to declina about ‘tour
per cent in the first half of
the year, after anjosting for

‘er, directa

markets will be a

position

non- srofit ¢ ini
e a)

find hard to ignore when
three master agreements af-
fecting about 40,000 workers

‘ in the forest industry expire

this auinmer.

“There is probably ne.
that

industry in this pi

“What you're ieobabiy
seeing is the lead edge of the
mega-producs due to start=

“eSpeagey in’ Alberta's *
‘and PetroCars oil develop-
ments, ; forwpich enormous

will be in higher demand in
the next 10 years than ours.”

_. Teamsters’ spokesman ‘.
Peter Wilson said-the Steel-";

workers’ agreement likely
won't have much affect on

talks involving his various °

locals this year.

“We don't, as a rule, go ”

outside our own,” he said.
“We: usually don't have to
look beyond the various

groups we represent because .

they are so varied.”

Wilson said the member-
ship is concerned about con-
tract length.

“Our locals are telling
us, ‘One year contract; two at
the most.’ They're really
concerned about the way
inflation is going and even
though 14 per cent looks
pretty good this year, there's

Idk hext year.”
Unions repr

will be’requived,” he said. °
“SUniods Wil find that.
lugtnigs aren't going
torneet: demands
for réal°wage' increases be-
cause the: hag productivity
increase of the average Can-
adian “work#@ is running
about zero per cent or less.”
‘Wage increases of more
than today’s 11-per-cent’ in-

‘flation mean Ottawa must

“inflatio: ath a recovery of;

equal or somewhat ‘smaller
magaltude in, the; second
half.”

But the report cautions *
.that..economic trends’ are
“more difficult than usual to

a long-t H

ee bad

there is widespread agree-.
ment that the economy Res:
gan will inherit is a sick one,
Inflation, which * many
hoped, would slow with Inst
year’s recession, | proved mu
on:

bet
sist

. half of 1981. Ina report more ;

made clear that .they"!

hai
Aifteng.to make. economic ©
i the gross national product — : tok

‘Bi

yout

wit a rob, |:
ems -as-inflation,. the: initial «2

t, of, any new. Reagan ,. attempt to counter nother
: Psycho’ inflatio if

orrawa A (CRY
‘tedar government is giving!
with ‘one “hand -' through
higher income'security bene-
fits and

sumer prices rose more than
12 per.cent in 1980, only
marginally botter than the

Be piper cent rise the. “year - late:

ea hoa: "biikiness and con.
Shiners, in a‘weaker' position

than normal after a ‘steep.

drop ‘in the economy last
spring, were hit by a run-up

$3kdimned down on‘credit in an

in ‘March and July. 3
«Phe $1-a-barrel wellhead *
payment to producers will -

not be felt by consumers until.

ra €0-day per-

income tax deductions — but
taking with the other as ‘the
year eee

. dest will see larger-pay--
roll deductions. and: rising
‘gasoline and home ‘heating .
prices that will continue to
climb throughout the year.

‘The’ bad and. slightly
complicated news first.

The price of gasoline at
the ‘pumps went up by about
1.9 cents a litre Thursday,
the beginning of energy price
increases that will also boost

either allow inflation to in- the cost of home heating oil
crease so an industry sur-. and natural gas.
vives, or hold inflation, lead- ‘ The price of ofl will

, ing to the industry's demise. increase in three stages, in

~-"And Canadinn..preduc- 1981 — $2.60: 4. bariel as a-
tivity is very sluggish right compensation tax and $1 at
now, but union leaders are the wellhead. immediately;

not always politically in a
position to make that case to
their r membership.”

tied to or |

followed by a $1 increase at
the wellhead July. 1.

The $2.60 amount-is an

rt tax that

leapfrogging beyond the”
Steelworkers” contract, “he ~.

‘said, could simply mean a

further inflation. It could also

other trades shouldn't expect
to do as well as the Steel-
workers, says Michael Walk-

mean ‘wholesale layoffs and
bankrupt © industries, . he
added.

_tough as ‘interest rates up

VANCOUVER (CP) —

* Canada’s small, independent

businessmen are tougher,

Jeaner‘and a bit meaner than’
they were a year ago.

With high interest rates,
businessmen’ are - fighting

_ back’: with tougher credit
management, leaner inven-
tories and meaner business
policies.

““The rough justice of
high interest rates is that the
strong survive and the weak
go to the wall,” said John
Bulloch, president of the
57,000-member. Canadian
Federation of Independent
‘Business.

~ “At eight per cent, you
ean be sloppy with inventory
‘management, but at a 18-per-
cent. interest rate, you “get
burned if you're eft with
stock.”

“Stretching credit is be-
coming an art,” said Geoff
Hale, operations manager at
the Canadian Organization of
Small Business, which repre-
sents about 3,800 indepen-
dent businesses.

Banks are tough with
small businesses, so inde:
pendent businessmen are
working close to the bottom
line, he said.

LEARNED’

They've learned to be
more flexible,” Hale said.
“Companies must think twice
before expanding inventory,
or-éven using credit at all.”
_ High interest rales are
also responsible for changing
business practices, Hale said.

For example, many busi-°

nesses no longer allow part-
payment.

- “T's ‘cash up front now
for many suppliers.”

But the small, indepen- .

dent businessman is adapting

to: the changes, he said.
“The smart guys are
putting @ full- time staffer on
bles, chasing

to become less dependent on
credit. If possible, they now
pay in $0 days instead of 60
days.

“They are purchasing
inventory and equipment
only after confirmed orders,
and they postpone decisions
unit the yery last minute.”

E EXPECTED

airs Hale estimates a
substantial increase in bank-
Tupteies in évery province
except B.C. and predicts an

even greater rate in 1981 -

unless interest rates drop
soon,

Hale conservatively esti-°

mates that between 20,000
and’ 30,000 of the 600,000
businessés in Canada folded
in 1980,

However, Bulloch said
the-crisis is not as bad as a
year ago when

rates for. the first time. |
“They learned,” he-said.
“Those that didn’t. aren't
around today.” c
But survival, even for

.into'a gover
:ment fund to bel mig whai
the government pays refin-
ers who buy

dod: in which retailers are
‘oxpected to get rid of stocks -
and lower-priced products on
hand — March 1.
Natural gas prices tise
‘only once this year — about
15 cents for 1 00 dubic feet
in July. ©
. Fedoral pension "pay-
ments, family allowance and

unemployment insurance -

benefits were raised effecti

" holleve - declining intorest
rates and a 10%er-cont per-

“We are. ‘more pessintis- ‘ronal income tax cut, along”

tic in our. current forecast ‘with lower corporate taxes
than we have: been in ‘our effective May 165, will provido
13 revious predictions. and our a lift to the economy.

glodm comes mainly from the Wharton's other predic:

“very stesvitise in’ Interest tlons for 1981. are fairly

rates’ in'\fhe’ last: month," - typical. of many. They. look

econiomiaty~trom Wharton for unemployment to reach a

Economic: Rérécasting Asso- peak of more’ than eight per
accent. cent by next autumn, up.

ROWTH / about 7.5 per cent recently.

s Inflation will. not improve

much and “large food and

energy price increases are

with the University.o& Penn. ahead."

sylvania, predicts hat * ‘econ- The low’ growth pattern
for 1981 is roughly in line

with ‘a consensus forecast

: compiled by Blue Chip Econ-

quarters of-1081.”" :omte Indicators, a Sedona,
The Wharton forecast “Ariz, newsletter which
doosn’t look for much growth’ monthly polls 42 leading
in‘ the economy until late forecasters; Its latest con-
1981, Be thén the economists sensu forecast looks for the

ance fund ‘rise’ to $5: 87 from” + + Monthly family allow-
$3.92 with a; ceiling ‘on in- ance payments for children
surable: earnings of $315.4 . under 18 rose Jan. 1 to $23.96
week, up irom $280." from . from $21.80 in most prov-

1980. 7 Sy. inces and territories. Quebec .

: Unemployment insur--
ance benefits forthe nearly -
800,000 “jobless. rise té a-
maximum of :$189 a week
from $174 effective. Jan. 1

Payroll. deductions : for" OTTAWA (CP) — Paul:

the Canada Pension Plan — Rose, who has, served ‘10° board.

Quebec has its own equiv- years of hls life sentence for .

alent — go up 9.9 per. cent ia i
along with all plan betiefits. the kidnapping and murder

Thursday to keep up with
inflation. These adjistments
are made through an index-
ing system based on ‘the
cost-of living in. 1980,
Income. taxes are re-
duced using the. same sys

thelr survivors © based’ .on - onal Parole
earnings. Maximum contri: Bord, eee panned WR.
butions have been 0 a
annually ‘since the plan _ day.
started in 1966.

Payments - ake the “The board has handled
plan increase to a maximum the case of Mr. Rose in. the
“of $274.81 sionth for théss same way it handles those of

. who retire in 1981 from the others who have been con-

rise by almost.10 per cent”
and tax brackets are stretch-
ed/ to cushion © consumers,

* against inflation.

The basic’ income’ tax”

Wern-,; ‘deduction rised ‘by’ $280 By

oil:
‘The result is an increase

0f 1.9 cents aboye the amount

. now charged a litre for
*. -regular grade and another .8

cee eee ae ae

"POEL costs INCREASE
Home heating fuel went

up 1.7 cents a litre Thursday

and will rise anothor .7 cents

e

But ccapliyoss, will pay -
mote. money to. Ottawa
through payroll deductions
for federal, income security
progrems,

CONTRIBUTIONS UP

Maximum weekly! em-
ployee contributions to- the
federal snemnloyment indur-;

Poland

the strongest, could be short |
lived.

: “Many busin: es are

_ riding the back “of strong

consumer spending, particu-

of the "Retail. Merchants’
Association said. that “retail-
era'in B.C. aren't“ hurting ;
Fight, now beeauie of C
nigs.” s
But she admitted: that
such high interest rates force
small retailers to reduce
inventories.

“Those who haven't sold
everything after Christmas

‘faced staggering interest

will havp pi tting sales

to move remaining sce"

“VSE outstrips Monireal’ oh

» VANCOUVER (CP) —
The Vancouver Stock Ex-
change vaulted past Mon-
treal in 1980 to become the
second most active

to it who.

By FRANK MACKEY
LONDON (CP) --
year 1980 ended for Europe
like a paragraph cut off in
mid-sentence. For many, that

‘sentence was Poland.

Establishment of free
trade unions there in the
midst of widespread dgita-
tion and strikes posed a chal-
lenge to the country’s com:
Tounist system.

As the year ended, the
possibility of Soviat military -
intervention — and the cer-

tainty that the last card had
not no} Jet been Played -— re

aa though it was the
dominant political eveht in
Europe in 1980, the struggle
in Poland was only one of

want to. put their paper
money into physical assets.”
Along Hepburn: jeaid

market in Canada. Toronto! is
most. active,

Sparked. by surging
precious-metals prices and oil

and gas plays, trading vol- -

ume and value hit record
levels,

The VSE garnered 11
percent of the equity trading
by value in Canada, up from
6.4 per cent last year, té out-
distance fading - Montreal
which dropped to 10 per cent.
of equity trading from 11%
per cent-a year ago,

The Toronto exchange
slipped to 78 per cent of
equity trading from 81. per
cent in 1979,

“It's been an exciting
year on the Vancouver Stock

their customers, as well as
monitoring tock levels pre-

cisely.
7 “They are 2 also managing

said Tony Hep-
burn, president of Odlum™
Brown and T.B. Read Ltd.
“The little company with a”

“3981, “the: high prices of

precious metals and energy
still make some of the junior
companies a srorthw hile in-
vestment.” -~ ‘

‘ Investors a) peared to
agree, Volume on the VSE in

1980 almost doubled to 1:78 &

billion shares traded from
919.9 million shares’ in 1979;
the value of: trading ‘was a
spectacular $4.4: billion in
1980, up fron $1.46 ition i in
1979,

New capital. raised
10980 was almost $200 tilon

compared with $105. ‘million .
through underwritings’.and .,

agency .offerings in 1979.
Trading on ‘the .VSE-
reached its most hectic pace

“on Nov. 21. when

one-day records were estab-

-lished — a turnover of 16.4: hig!

 thillion ‘shares’ worth $49.8.

= Bev in 1a year of
suspense,

‘The tone was set by the

Soviot invasion of Afghanis-

tan in the waning days. of

1979, a display of Thusdls t that.

had spenercusetons through-

it 1

KEPT T00 BUSY

. It has been suggested
that’ its difficulties in Af-
hanistan helped to keep the
Soviets from interfering .in
Yugoslavia as that country

No record
“temps. set

Despite mild wextier on
New Year's Day, no record
temperatures were set, in
Castlegar. ; .
The day's high was 5.
compared with the record
h of 8 in 1963. The record
low for the day — minus 1 ~.

small asset base is now very “ million’ in'14,982 transactions. was set in 1979,

settled..on new aaa

following the May 4 death of

of individual protests against | -

the invasion convinced lead-

ers of member: countries of

the need for. ‘greaten’ bse
atic

pean ity «
-certain to bé, tested if, 1981 -

with increased east-west ten-"
sions, stagnation of Genevea
disarmament’: talks and ‘the

* ORILLIA, :
The death’. of: one "Ontario"
1 P

top $244.44'a month paid to victed, by the -courts, of
those who retired in 1980, ‘ serious offences under the
All benefits rise by.9.9- Criminal Code,"Outerbridge

“per cent, Those who’ began. aid.in’a statement.
calecting in’ 1980 set on in- - .: He noted recefit allega-
z oath. / tons by the’ Montreal ‘based ¢

for, -some time”

real GNP to show no growth
in the first quarter and only a
little growth by spring.,’ The
economy is expected to pick .
up strength in the last half of ¢
je year,

a Wwe worth noting that ‘:
the record of forecasters Inst:
year was not all that good. -
While most correctly pre-
dicted that 1980 would bring
the seventh U.S. recession’ ”
since the Second World War, :
few -if any foretold record.‘
high interest rates and the”
roller-coaster path of the.
economy last year. ‘The conv’:
sensus forecast called for: a 4
milk recession followed by & 4
sluggish recovery late in
1980.

Instead, what developed
was the steepest drop in
gross national. product a
record — at an annual rate of
9,9 per cent in the April-June:
quarter.

and Alberta’ pay varying |
rates to families depending
on the age and number of
children and on family in-
comes. hd

Vath

“Deny Rose parolé —

not be made public: by ‘the

“However, the’ “nate i is
free’ to disclose them if he:
wishes.” ed

woo

Licence fees

are increasing |

. VANCOUVER (CP) —
B.C. motorists, already fac-
ing huge increases in Insur-
‘ance Corp. of B.C. vehicle
insurance rates, will be pay-
ing more for motor vehicle :
licence fees in.1981. t

Effective March 1, ve- |

hicle licence fees will increase ™ .

between 308 and 100, per.cent,
nt]

+ Bigue des
(prisoners’ rights ‘ league)
“of age'pension rose Jan, that the board had “failed to
$202.14 a month “from: act responsibly”: in hearing
$198.83. ‘applications by prisoners con-
wt ‘The masimiin rio victed of terrorist acts, -
guaran come supple-:.. . t ih 4
ment rate, for poorer pen- . “the fe has” in fact
sioners, went to $202.94 from -» & eh eck en
Fg ‘2 ditional release to all but two
: $197.60. A pensioner getting
both . the , supplement and of those who were mentioned -:
basic. old ‘age pension now by-these groups as ‘political

receives $405.08: month, ea - Outerbridge

He-said the reasons for
velecting ‘the spplication |
, were given to Rose in writing.

‘on New Year's Eve but will

oa

Quebet wins

For the EEC, 1980 was | parade. trophy ©
BERG SOT |, paganenn cau
sit obtained a promise of a $6-._ Aer d= The province. ot Ge
billion refund on its member- '. Tro be ik Th dens! 92 d
, Ship dues, The nine members - pee avant TTRe an
— they became 10 Jan. 1 this . di with its: 2 . a.

with the accession of: parade, with its float called
“year . _ Ite Warmer in Quebec.”

itish Colum-

fisheries. ‘policy; "and -” Calgary
mained plagued with a bud. seer hind 3 firs at ee
ee een nie a outside th United Staten.”
most ol 1a walle | a Ys

{isWiejo, - Calif,
culture peer bid ‘por cont of won the Sweepstakes ‘pri
"Te EEC ended its year / with its float “dummertie."

: OTTAWA’ (cP) =
Bes letter carrier's union has ‘de-
“wag in hospital . with, five - cided to . send, a’ -contract:
gunshot wounds. ° ae dispute with the post ‘office to”
i a: conciliation. board rather

for. two-toan patrols ‘for, the.
proyinelat police force.
‘The: -120-Kilometres

day, but hospital officials said’

hie is ‘expected:,to’live. A’ aon president Bob Me.
hospital spokesman said:he  Garrysaid the: decision. —
was on. a" had_ ‘made: re by. ‘repre-

and ves of. the 20,500 car-

ce vale to ‘talk to his wife.:’.riers;— means another, two

luring «
+ that": “winds |
* through caaral Ontario's cot-

tage ‘country,’, was, the scene”
of three . shootings. Friday,
two of:them fatal.

When’. the. ‘Gwochour’
melee .was over, Neil (Ches-" *

‘Two-youths ‘from-Wind-: ‘ months, of peace ‘In the post
sor, Ont., have been charged "' office.” oe a
‘with firat-degree murder and The “earners and the |
attempted murder .in? the post office have not’ been able
shooting of the policemen and’ to. reach: agreement on
second-degree murder.in the wages, a cost-of-living allow-
attendant’s death, °°"

ad ye Schéenberge: “new contract to replace the |
ha and’

is McGarry said the concil-

y, were | trans-: iation board will likely take

: " forced later to the count two: ‘months ‘to, produce’ a

itz. one which:expired Dec.-31, <

* drive. f
For people who drive
mid-size or compact vehicles,
the annual rate will climb to
between $25 and $40 from a
range of $18 to :$31. For
larger vehicles, the rates will,
inerease to $60 to $70 from :

$45 to

Annual licence fees ‘for
motorcyclists will jump 100
per cent to $10 from $5. :"

: Motor’ homes will.
crease by 30 per cent. to 1 an-
nual fees ranging from $380 to
$60, depending. on vehicle
weight. ‘

The only vehicles spared
the increase are antique cars,
which remain at 7.

Police seek
Kelowna ‘man .

: SPOKANE (AB). ‘The
Washington State Patrol has
been asked to help search for
a. 24-year-old Canadian

: charged in the beating deaths
In the Class’ AAAS, .

of his parents,
‘Communications Officer
. Buz Binsfield:said the ROMP
were ‘searching for Garth
Killips of Kelowna, Binsfield
said’ Canadian” authotities
held warrants charging Kil-
“lips with two counts of sec-
_ond-degree murder in the
deaths of Archie Killips, 73,
and hia‘wife Eunice; 62...
The officer. said Cans-

* disn authoritiés believed Kil-

“Yps may have slipped into the

United States at Danville, .

. Wash,, ~ in Ferry * County”
of Repub a

KELOWNA (cP) —
Emergency services - and
maintenance ’workers at the

and the: wounding’of another © - but stable ‘condition’ Satur-.;, than sonic an immediate “airport. served | ‘notice Satur.”
has brought. renewed cries ~ ‘strike:

day that“a ban on’ overtime’
Sail contiiue,

Two: delayed * PWA
, flights into the city were
cancelled Friday. night when
. the 17 members of the Can-
adian ‘Union of Public Em--
ployees refused to work later
than 11 p.m.

A union spokesman said
current contract negotiations .
with the municipality are in

Jec, 3:

The bckeaman “said
union and city negotiators
met once to discuss terms for
a. new? agreement, but the
’ meeting was ® unsatisfactory.

4 jectric tein] E
“Alto, a Reigns, span
Mod

Chamber,
965-6097.

ULLY = FURR:

ulte, Ph. 365-2548,

IL risn |
toetuiaa eects

“THROUGH SPECIAL ARRANGEMEN
WE ARE ABLE FO OF

See-Any of our Salesmen
‘for Fempleye Det ils on this