Fall 2017 Executive Summary Manufacturing remains an important part of Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP), and makes up to 11% of the national gross domestic product (GDP). In 2013, British Columbia (BC) accounted for approximately 8.5% of the total Canadian manufacturing GDP. Within the province of BC, in 2013, the manufacturing sector is the fourth largest industry, contributing nearly 7% towards the provincial GDP. This report examines the manufacturing sector in the province, and explores its contributions to the Columbia Basin-Boundary region. This report looks specifically at indicators in the following areas:    Manufacturing sector establishments; Economic contributions; and Employment within the manufacturing sector. This, and the following page presents relevant sector highlights. Manufacturing sector establishments The manufacturing sector is made up of a number of subsectors: Fabricated metal product, food, beverage and tobacco, machinery, paper, primary metal, transportation equipment, wood product, and other.1 In 2016, BC. was home to 18,891 manufacturing facilities, with the Kootenay Development Region containing 4% or 756.2 The Central Kootenay Regional District has the highest number of manufacturing facilities with 386, the East Kootenay follows with 247, and the Kootenay Boundary has the fewest with 123. Economic contributions within the manufacturing sector Manufacturing sales in BC rose for the seventh straight year, up 4.2% to $45.9 billion in 2016. 3 The increase in 2016 was led by the wood product (+10.3% to $9.5 billion) and the primary metal (+33.0% to $3.4 billion) industries.3 The value of shipments by BC. manufacturing firms increased to $4.8 billion in 2014, which marked the fifth year in a row manufacturers experienced an increase in revenues. 4 Sales growth in BC. was strongest in the manufacturing of transportation equipment and machinery, followed by wood products manufacturing.4 In 2015, median hourly wages in the Kootenay Development Region were the third highest in the province at $28.85, after the Cariboo and the Northeast, and higher than the provincial and national averages. In comparison, the median hourly wage for all employees in all sectors of the economy in the Kootenays was $23.90. Employment forecast within the manufacturing sector The manufacturing sector accounts for 8.9% of total employment in the Kootenay Development Region, constituting the fifth highest employing sector after health and social assistance (12.5%), wholesale and retail trade (11.4%), construction (10.5%), and forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas (11.0%). The manufacturing sector in the Kootenay Development Region has experienced a 28% increase in employment since 2014, and employed 6,000 people in 2016. In the Kootenay Development Region, the fabricated metal product manufacturing industry, food, beverage and tobacco industry, machinery manufacturing, and transportation equipment manufacturing subsectors will all see the highest rates of job growth in the manufacturing sector at 1.8% between 2016 and 2025. In total, there are an anticipated 2,148 job openings forecast for the manufacturing sector by 2025 in the Kootenay Development Region. The primary metal manufacturing subsector will see the highest number of job openings between 2015 and 2025 with 734 positions, accounting for 30% of all jobs in the province within that subsector. In the Kootenay Development region, the top occupations expected to generate the largest number of new job openings between the years 2017 – 2025 include: retail and wholesale trade managers, retail salespersons, and transport truck drivers. The occupations with the highest, sustained demand in the South East region, include retail salespersons, transport truck drivers, retail and wholesale trade managers, food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations. L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 2 Introduction This report is part of a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) funded project entitled, Regional Workforce Development in Rural BC. The purpose of this profile is to identify current manufacturing sector market trends and issues, including current and projected labour market needs to help workforce development partners within the Columbia Basin-Boundary region understand and respond to changing labour market demands. This manufacturing sector labour market profile identifies characteristics that comprise the BC manufacturing sector, including performance in terms of production, and contribution to the regional economy. The guiding research questions include: 1. 2. What is known about the manufacturing sector within the Columbia Basin-Boundary region and how does the region compare provincially and nationally? What are the current and projected labour market needs for the Columbia BasinBoundary region? Methodology The Manufacturing Labour Market Profile was prepared by reviewing the following sources (see Appendix A: References and Resources):  Industry research of publically available studies and reports;  Industry data and statistics collected from publically available sources such as Statistics Canada, BC Stats, Work BC;  Secondary research documents, such as regional economic studies; and  Labour Force Survey data purchased through Statistics Canada. Data related specifically to the labour market for the manufacturing industry was selected, as well as economic data that illustrates the status of the labour market. Additional information on a sector in the Columbia Basin-Boundary region may be available as part of the State of the Basin report prepared by the Columbia Basin Rural Development Institute. Statistics are not frequently reported for the Columbia Basin-Boundary region making it challenging in some instances to report on statistics for the Columbia Basin-Boundary in its entirety. For instance some data is collected at a Development Region level and the Columbia Basin-Boundary covers three Development Regions: Revelstoke and Golden in the Thompson-Okanagan region, Valemount in the Cariboo region, and the entirety of the Kootenay Development Region (see Figure 1). In other instances, data is reported for the South East region, including the Thompson-Okanagan and Kootenay Development Regions, but excludes Valemount. Figure 1: BC Development Regions as defined by Work BC i,28 This report was researched and prepared between January 2, 2017—June 30, 2017. L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 3 The Columbia Basin-Boundary Located in the southeast corner of British Columbia, the Columbia Basin-Boundary region (see Figure 2) includes the Regional Districts of East Kootenay, Central Kootenay, Kootenay Boundary, in addition to Revelstoke, Golden, Valemount and Columbia Shuswap Regional District Areas A and B. With an approximate land area of 83,171 square kilometres, the region accounts for 9% of the size of British Columbia, and is abundant with valleys and mountain ranges including the Purcells, Selkirks and Monashees. Figure 2: The Columbia Basin-Boundary Region With a regional population of 162,900, it accounts for 3.5% of the provincial population.5 The overall population is aging and while different communities have different population projections the overall regional population projection is steady with no large gains or losses.5 The economy is primarily resource-based with forestry and mining as key economic drivers. The region’s hydro-electric power generation accounts for approximately 44% of electricity generated in the province and the region is home to British Columbia’s largest coal fields. 6 The Columbia Basin-Boundary region is also amenity-rich, supporting a vibrant tourism industry. The labour market in the Kootenay Development Region is currently strong with the second highest job growth of the seven development regions reported between 2010-2015 (3.5%).6 However, while 54.2% of residents have some post-secondary education, only 5.1% have a university certificate, diploma, or degree above a bachelor’s degree, and 9.9% have a university bachelor’s degree. These are both lower than BC and Canada, where in BC 8.1% have a university certificate, diploma, or degree above a bachelor’s degree, and 14.0% have a university bachelor’s L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 4 degree. For Canada, it is 7.5% and 13.3% respectively.7 It is important to note that provincially more than 78% of all future job openings will require post-secondary education, including 36% that will require a bachelor's, graduate or first professional degree and/or significant work experience.8 The unemployment rate in the Kootenay Development Region in March of 2017 is 6.4%.9 Characteristics of the Manufacturing Sector The manufacturing sector comprises activities that require the physical or chemical transformation of materials or substances into new products. These products may be finished, in the sense that they are ready to be used or consumed; or semi-finished, to be used as an input by another manufacturer or industry. Related activities, such as the assembly of the component parts of manufactured goods, the blending of materials, and the finishing of manufactured products by dyeing, heat-treating, plating and similar operations are also treated as manufacturing activities. Advanced manufacturing is a commonly referenced term which is widely defined as “manufacturing that involves the use of technology to improve products and/or processes, with the relevant technology being described as ‘advanced,’ ‘innovative,’ or ‘cutting edge.’”10 This labour market profile includes advanced manufacturing, but also looks at the larger manufacturing sector as most of the data is not classified along advanced manufacturing categories. Manufacturing in Canada Manufacturing remains an important part of Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP), as it does for many other member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).4 Canada’s manufacturing sector makes up more than 10% of the total GDP or $173 billion11, similar to countries like the United Kingdom, France and the Netherlands.4 Manufacturers export more than $318 billion each year representing 61% of all of Canada’s merchandise exports.11 The sector is responsible for 1.7 million jobs across the country.11 Manufacturing in BC The manufacturing sector is a primary generator for growing BC exports, comprising 67% of goods shipped.12 A wide range of high-value products and components are produced for international and domestic markets. In 2015, manufacturing generated $15 billion in GDP and supported 172,500 jobs in BC.12 Of the goods manufactured in BC, 64% are exported to international destinations, with the United States being the largest trade partner (57% of all exported manufactured goods), followed by China (18% of all exported manufactured goods).4 Exports to China have become increasing important, due primarily to the export of wood and wood products, which accounted for 81% of all goods exported to China in 2014.4 Domestically, BC’s biggest trading partner of manufactured goods is Alberta. 4 In 2013, BC accounted for approximately 8.5% of the total Canadian manufacturing GDP. This made it the fourth largest contributor of manufacturing sector GDP to the country’s total manufacturing GDP, after Ontario (44.5%), Quebec (25.7%), and Alberta (11.1%).4 Within the province, in 2013, the manufacturing sector was the fourth largest industry, contributing nearly 7% towards the provincial GDP. The finance, insurance, real estate and leasing sector, construction sector, and health care and social assistance sector all contributed more to the provincial GDP than the manufacturing sector. 4 L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 5 Manufacturing sales in BC rose for the seventh straight year, up 4.2% to $45.9 billion in 2016.3 The increase in 2016 was led by the wood product (+10.3% to $9.5 billion) and the primary metal (+33.0% to $3.4 billion) industries.3 The value of shipments by BC manufacturing firms increased to $4.8 billion in 2014, which marked the fifth year in a row manufacturers experienced an increase in revenues.4 Sales growth in BC was strongest in the manufacturing of transportation equipment and machinery, followed by wood products manufacturing.4 Primary metal manufacturing firms experienced a decline in revenues in 2014.4 The provincial manufacturing sector in BC is more reliant on natural resources than other manufacturing provinces in Canada, with nearly 70% of BC’s sector originating from resourcebased manufacturing.4 BC’s top manufacturing industries in 2013 were wood products (nearly 24%), food (approximately 12%), and paper (nearly 8%).4 Number of Persons (1,000) Since the 1980’s, overall employment in the BC manufacturing industry has remained relatively constant. As shown in Figure 3, following a decline in 2008 the number of people employed has fluctuated from a high of 172,500 in 2015 to a low of 151,700 in 2013. Employment numbers in the manufacturing industry have yet to recover to 2008 levels. 250.0 200.0 193.4 191.3 197.4 177.9 154.5 154.6 156.8 164.8 151.7 161.4 172.5 170.1 150.0 100.0 50.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year Figure 3: British Columbia Manufacturing Employment, Annual Averages, 2005 - 201613 Just 26% of the employed labour force in the manufacturing sector were women in 2014. In comparison, nearly 48% of the employed labour force across all sectors is female. 4 Manufacturing Sector Classifications: NAICS The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS i) was used to define the manufacturing sector.4 This report focuses on NAICS 31, 32, and 33. Refer to Appendix B for a detailed list of NAICS codes relating to the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing Sector Composition The manufacturing industry is made up of a number of sub-industries: Fabricated metal product, food, beverage and tobacco, machinery, paper, primary metal, transportation equipment, wood product, and other.1 i The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is an industry classification system composed of sectors (twodigit codes), subsectors (three-digit codes), industry groups (four-digit codes), industries (five-digit codes) and country specific industries (six-digit codes) L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 6 1. NAICS 332 - fabricated metal product manufacturing “The fabricated metal product manufacturing industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in forging, stamping, forming, turning and joining processes to produce ferrous and nonferrous metal products, such as cutlery and hand tools, architectural and structural metal products, boilers, tanks and shipping containers, hardware, spring and wire products, turned products, and bolts, nuts and screws.”14 2. NAICS 321 – wood product manufacturing “There are three industry groups in this subsector, comprising establishments engaged in sawing logs into lumber and similar products, or preserving these products; making products that improve the natural characteristics of wood, by making veneers, plywood, reconstituted wood panel products or engineered wood assemblies; and making a diverse range of wood products, such as millwork.”15 3. NAICS 311 & 312 – food and beverage and tobacco product manufacturing “The food manufacturing industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in producing food for human or animal consumption. The beverage and tobacco product manufacturing industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing beverages and tobacco products.”16 4. NAICS 333 – machinery manufacturing “The machinery manufacturing industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing industrial and commercial machinery. These manufactures assemble parts into components, subassemblies and complete machines. They may make the parts themselves, using general metal-working processes, or purchase them.”17 5. NAICS 322 – paper manufacturing “The paper manufacturing industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing pulp, paper and paper products. The manufacture of pulp involves separating the cellulose fibres from other impurities in wood, used paper or other fibre sources. The manufacture of paper involves matting these fibres into a sheet. Converted paper products are produced from paper and other, materials by various cutting and shaping techniques.”18 6. NAICS 331 – primary metal manufacturing “The primary metal manufacturing industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in smelting and refining ferrous and non-ferrous metals from ore, pig iron or scrap in blast or electric furnaces. Metal alloys are made with the introduction of other chemical elements. The output of smelting and refining, usually in ingotii form, is used in rolling and drawing operations to produce sheet, strip, bars, rods and wire, and in molten form to produce castings and other basic metal products.”19 7. NAICS 336 – transportation equipment manufacturing “The transportation equipment manufacturing industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing equipment for transporting people and goods. The ii Ingot is a mold in which metal is cast.27 L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 7 industry groups are based on the various modes of transport - road, rail, air, and water. Three industry groups are based on road transportation equipment - for complete vehicles, for body and trailer manufacture and for parts.”20 8. NAICS 313, 314, 315, 323, 325, 326, 327, 335, 337 & 339 – other manufacturing The ‘other’ category includes the following manufacturing subsectors: textile mills, clothing manufacturing, leather and allied product manufacturing, printing and related support activities, petroleum and coal product manufacturing, chemical manufacturing, plastics and rubber product manufacturing, non-metallic mineral product manufacturing, computer and electronic product manufacturing, electrical equipment, appliance and component manufacturing, furniture and related product manufacturing, and miscellaneous manufacturing.21 Manufacturing Sector Trends & Outlook in the Columbia Basin–Boundary The following indicators will be examined within the Columbia Basin-Boundary region:    Manufacturing sector establishments; Economic contributions; and Employment within the manufacturing sector. These indicators are presented in detail below, including a description of what is measured and its importance, as well as current data and trends where available. Manufacturing sector establishments In 2016, BC was home to 18,891 manufacturing facilitiesiii, with the Kootenay Development Region containing 4% or 756.2 A data request from BC Stats indicates that the count of manufacturing businesses in the Columbia Basin-Boundary was just slightly higher at 840. Figure 4 provides a comparison between the three Regional Districts in the Columbia Basin-Boundary. The Central Kootenay Regional District has the highest number of manufacturing facilities with 386 in 2016, a slight increase from 2015. The East Kootenay follows with 247 in 2016, a slight decrease from 2015; and the Kootenay Boundary has the fewest with 123 in 2016, a slight decrease from 2015.iv iii The count includes establishments with and without employees. A change in methodology in 2014 means that comparing data with previous years may provide inaccurate results. iv L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 8 450 382 386 Number of busineses 400 350 300 250 251 247 2015 200 127 123 150 2016 100 50 0 East Kootenay Central Kootenay Kootenay-Boundary Regional District Figure 4: Count of manufacturing businesses by regional district, 2015 - 20162 Economic contribution The manufacturing sector in British Columbia is a vital part of the economy with major employment centers in the province (see Figure 5). In 2016, manufacturing was concentrated in the Lower Mainland – Southwest regions with 66.4% of all people employed in manufacturing working in that region. The Thompson–Okanagan region is the second largest Development Region to employ people in the manufacturing sector with 10.6%, followed closely by Vancouver Island and the Coast with 10.5%, the Cariboo region with 5.5%, and the Kootenay Development Region with 3.5%. The number of people employed in the manufacturing sector has ebbed and flowed in the Kootenay Development Region since 2001, with a high of 10,200 (2004) to a low of 4,200 (2008). In 2016, there were 6,000 people employed in the manufacturing sector in the Kootenay Development Region, representing a 28% increase since 2014. L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 9 Number of Persons (1,000) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year Vancouver Island and Coast Thompson-Okanagan Kootenay Cariboo North Coast and Nechako Figure 5: Number of Persons (in thousands) employment by manufacturing 2001-201622,v Figure 6 shows that 2007 was the peak employment rate in the manufacturing industry with 8.3%, followed by a sharp decline from which the industry is still recovering. The manufacturing employment rate in the Kootenay Development Region in 2015 was 5.3%. 9.0 Employment Rate (%) 8.0 8.3 7.6 6.9 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.2 5.3 4.7 5.2 4.5 5.3 4.7 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Figure 6: Manufacturing employment in the Kootenay Development Region from 2006 to 2015 23 The Kootenay Development Region has a diverse economic base; with employment both in the service sector as well as the goods-producing sector. The services producing sector is the main employment sector, accounting for 67% of total employment in 2016, while the goods-producing sector makes up approximately 33% of total employment.22 The manufacturing sector, accounts for 8.9% of total employment (see Figure 7) in the Kootenay Development Region, constituting v The Northeast region was omitted from Figure 1 due to suppressed data, and the Lower Mainland - Southwest region was omitted from the graph to show the regional differences between the other regions. L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 10 the fifth highest employing sector after health and social assistance (12.5%), wholesale and retail trade (11.4%), construction (10.5%), and forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas (11.0%). Public administration 4.3% Other services (except public administration) 5.3% Accommodation and food services 7.1% Information, culture and recreation 4.5% Health care and social assistance 12.5% Industry Educational services 5.6% Business, building and other support services 4.6% Professional, scientific and technical services 4.6% Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing 2.8% Transportation and warehousing 4.2% Wholesale and retail trade 11.4% Manufacturing 8.9% Construction 10.5% Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas 11.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% Percentage Figure 7: Percentage of employment by industry in the Kootenay Development Region, 201622, vi Median Hourly Wage Rate ($) In 2015, median hourly wages for the manufacturing sector in the Kootenay Development Region were the third highest in the province at $28.85, after the Cariboo and the Northeast, and higher than the provincial and national averages (see Figure 8). In comparison, the median hourly wage for all employees in all sectors of the economy in the Kootenays was $23.90. Provincially, the wages in the durable goods industries were much higher than in non-durable goods, with the exception of paper. Paper placed second after primary metal paying the highest earnings, and food products paying the lowest.4 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Canada British Columbia Kootenay Figure 8: Median hourly wage rate, total employed, manufacturing sector, 2006 - 201523 vi The Agriculture and Utilities industries were omitted due to suppressed data. L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 11 Employment forecast A total of 134,700 job openings are expected in the South Eastvii region by 2025.24 Three in ten job openings are due to economic growth and the rest are to replace retired workers. Employment demand in the region is forecast to increase each year by 1.1 % on average, the same rate as the provincial average.8 Provincially, 98% of all job openings in the manufacturing industry will occur to replace workers who will leave the labour force over the next ten years. 24 As shown in Figure 9, in BC the paper manufacturing sector will see the lowest average annual growth rate of employment between 2016 and 2025 at a rate of -2.6%, while the machinery manufacturing will see the highest growth at 1.2%. In the Kootenay Development Region, the fabricated metal product manufacturing industry, food, beverage and tobacco industry, machinery manufacturing, and transportation equipment manufacturing will all see the highest rates of growth at 1.8%. Similar to the provincial profile, the paper manufacturing sector will see the lowest rate of growth at -1.1%. 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% Percentage 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% -0.5% -0.5% -1.0% -1.1% -1.5% -1.3% -2.0% Other Wood product Transportation equipment Primary metal -2.6% Paper manufacturing Machinery Manufacturing Fabricated metal product manufacturing industry -3.0% Food, Beverage and Tobacco -2.5% Manufacturing Subsectors BC Kootenay Figure 9: Average growth rate of employment, manufacturing subsectors, 2016 - 202514–21 As shown in Figure 10, the primary metal manufacturing subsector will see the highest number of job openings between 2015 and 2025 with 734 positions. This accounts for 30% of all jobs in vii The South East region includes Thompson-Okanagan and Kootenay Census Economic Regions. Note that while this area does not match the Columbia Basin-Boundary region it covers the majority of the study region except for Valemount which is located in the Cariboo Census Economic Region. L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 12 Job Openings the primary metal sector in the province (2,423 provincially). The wood product sector (476), other manufacturing (327), and paper manufacturing (253) are all sectors which will see higher numbers of job openings in the region. In total, there are an anticipated 2,148 job openings forecast for the manufacturing sector by 2025 in the Kootenay Development Region. 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 734 476 187 34 327 253 71 66 Manufacturing Subsectors Kootenay Figure 10: Industry job openings, Kootenay Development Region, 2015-202514–21 Occupational forecastviii None of the manufacturing occupations are in the top 10 occupations forecast to expand the fastest in the South East region.24 Given that the manufacturing industry is made up of a number of sub-industries (i.e., fabricated metal product, food, beverage and tobacco, machinery, paper, primary metal, transportation equipment, wood product, and other manufacturing), the number and range of occupations associated with this industry makes it very difficult to look at the occupational forecast for the manufacturing sector in its entirety. Many of the occupations identified as related to the manufacturing industry or one of its sub-industries are also related to other non-manufacturing industries, such as construction trades helpers and labourers, transport truck drivers, financial auditors and accountants, and restaurant and food service managers. For a complete list of all occupations associated with the manufacturing industry as included in the WorkBC Industry Outlook reports, refer to Appendix B. Given these constraints, this section will look only at the top 10 occupations identified based on largest number of job openings in the South East region 24, and that are also considered occupations related to the manufacturing sector as per the WorkBC Industry Outlook for the manufacturing sub-industries.14–21,ix They include:    ix (0621) Retail and wholesale trade managers (0631) Restaurant and food service managers (1111) Financial auditors and accountants A complete list of all occupations is available from: https://catalogue.data.gov.bc.ca/dataset/labour-market-outlook L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 13        (1221) Administrative officers (6421) Retail salespersons (6731) Light duty cleaners (6711) Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations (6733) Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents (7511) Transport truck drivers (7611) Construction trades helpers and labourers Labour demand-supply projection Labour force supply less demandx (see Table 1) looks at the occupations related to the manufacturing sector in the South East region xi and examines the supply of workers against the demand for workers. Labour force demand is an estimate of the number of workers needed (i.e., employment) as well as the number of workers that are normally unemployed (e.g., due to transitioning between jobs, responding to seasonal fluctuations, or lack of skills match). Labour force supply represents the possible labour force, including supply from new entrants and from migrants. As shown in Table 1, retail salespersons, transport truck drivers, retail and wholesale trade managers, food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations are the occupations with the highest, sustained demand in the manufacturing sector until 2025 in the South East region. x Labour Force Supply Less Demand: The difference between the Labour Force Supply and Labour Force Demand. If this value is positive, then Labour Force Supply is greater than Labour Force Demand. xi Data is only available at the South East regional level. L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 14 Labour Force Supply Less Demand – South East Region 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total 0621 Retail and wholesale trade managers 13 15 -58 -109 -114 -124 -119 -93 -64 -62 -62 -777 0631 Restaurant and food service managers 30 3 -19 -35 -37 -40 -38 -30 -21 -20 -20 -227 1111 Financial auditors and accountants -38 10 -12 -27 -29 -32 -31 -25 -17 -16 -16 -233 1221 Administrative officers -27 5 -29 -55 -57 -66 -62 -50 -35 -33 -32 -441 6421 Retail salespersons 18 26 -90 -170 -178 -196 -188 -148 -102 -99 -98 -1225 helpers and related support occupations 67 7 -53 -96 -104 -113 -109 -86 -61 -59 -59 -666 6731 Light duty cleaners 35 3 -41 -70 -74 -81 -79 -62 -44 -42 -42 -497 7511 Transport truck drivers -287 64 -10 -69 -82 -100 -95 -73 -46 -46 -44 -788 labourers 18 2 Table 1: Labour Force Supply Less Demand, South East region25 -30 -42 -41 -54 -44 -38 -26 -24 -21 -300 6711 Food counter attendants, kitchen 7611 Construction trades helpers and Labour demand due to growth & attrition Table 2 presents the estimated total number of job openings for the Kootenay Development Region between 2017 and 2025 due to expansion and replacement. Note that the Kootenay Development Region represents a slightly smaller geographic area than the Columbia BasinBoundary region in so far as it excludes Valemount, Revelstoke, and Golden. Provincially, by 2025 it is expected that 69% of job openings will be due to retirements and deaths. 8 In the Kootenay Development Region, the top occupations expected to generate the largest number of new openings (full year job openings) between the years 2017 – 2025 include: retail and wholesale trade managers (1,094), retail salespersons (844), and transport truck drivers (728). Kootenay Development Region Total job openings between 2017 and 2025 0621 Retail and wholesale trade managers 1094 0631 Restaurant and food service managers 173 1111 Financial auditors and accountants 132 1221 Administrative officers 534 6421 Retail salespersons 844 6711 Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 278 6731 Light duty cleaners 492 6733 Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 453 7511 Transport truck drivers 728 7611 Construction trades helpers and labourers 159 Table 2: Summary of potential job openings due to growth & attrition (in full-year jobs) by industry & occupation in manufacturing-related industries (2017-2025), Kootenay Development Region26 Conclusion The purpose of this profile is to identify current manufacturing sector market trends and issues, including current and projected labour market needs to help workforce development partners within the Columbia Basin-Boundary region understand and respond to changing labour market demands. In total, there are an anticipated 2,148 job openings forecast for the manufacturing sector by 2025 in the Kootenay Development Region. The primary metal manufacturing subsector will see the highest number of job openings between 2015 and 2025 with 734 positions, and that accounts for 30% of all jobs in the province within that subsector. At a subsector level, job openings will be highest in the primary metal (734), wood products manufacturing (476), other (327), paper (253), food, beverage and tobacco (187), transportation equipment (71), machinery (66), and fabricated metal product (34). Job openings for specific occupations relating to the manufacturing sector are highest for transport truck drivers (728), retail and wholesale trade managers (1,094), and retail salesperson (844). Retail salespersons (-1225), transport truck drivers (-788), retail and wholesale trade managers (-777), food counter attendants, kitchen L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 16 helpers and related support occupations (-666) are the occupations with the highest, sustained demand in the manufacturing sector until 2025 in the South East region. Despite being hit hard by the 2008-2009 recession, the manufacturing sector has made a relatively strong recovery in output and employment.4 External factors such as the economic recovery of the United States, increasing exports to high-growth destinations like China, and efforts to diversify market access can have benefits to BC’s manufacturing sector. L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 17 Appendix A: References & Resources 1. WorkBC. Manufacturing. (2017). Available at: https://www.workbc.ca/Labour-MarketIndustry/Industry-Information/Industry-Outlooks/Manufacturing.aspx. (Accessed: 4th June 2017) 2. BC Stats. Establishment Location Counts. Data contained in this table are adapted from Statistics Canada’s Business Register. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product. (2017). 3. Statistics Canada. Manufacturing: The Year in Review, 2016. (2017). Available at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/170306/dq170306a-eng.htm. (Accessed: 30th May 2017) 4. Najmus Saqib and Dan Schrier. A Profile of British Columbias Manufacturing Sector. (2015). 5. Columbia Basin Rural Development Institute. Trends Analysis: Demographics. (2016). 6. Columbia Basin Rural Development Institute. Our Region. (2017). Available at: http://www.cbrdi.ca/about-us/our-region/. (Accessed: 5th September 2017) 7. Columbia Basin Rural Development Institute. Our Region. (2017). Available at: http://www.cbrdi.ca/about-us/our-region/. (Accessed: 17th May 2017) 8. WorkBC. 2025 Labour Market Outlook. (2016). 9. WorkBC. Regional Profile: Kootenay. (2017). Available at: https://www.workbc.ca/Labour-Market-Information/Regional-Profiles/3. (Accessed: 3rd June 2017) 10. Wikipedia. Advanced Manufacturing. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_manufacturing. (Accessed: 3rd June 2017) 11. Government of Canada. Canada’s Manufacturing Sector. Available at: http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/mfg-fab.nsf/eng/home. (Accessed: 18th July 2017) 12. Province of British Columbia. Manufacturing. Available at: https://www.workbc.ca/Labour-Market-Industry/Industry-Information/IndustryOutlooks/Manufacturing.aspx. (Accessed: 20th May 2017) 13. BC Stats. British Columbia Employment by Detailed Industry, Annual Averages. Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey (2017). 14. WorkBC. Industry Outlook Profile: Metal Product Fabricated. (2016). 15. WorkBC. Industry Outlook Profile: Wood Products. (2016). 16. WorkBC. Industry Outlook Profile: Food and Beverage and Tobacco Product. (2016). 17. WorkBC. Industry Outlook Profile: Machinery. (2016). 18. WorkBC. Industry Outlook Profile: Paper. (2016). 19. WorkBC. Industry Outlook Profile: Primary Metal. (2016). 20. WorkBC. Industry Outlook Profile: Transportation Equipment. (2016). 21. WorkBC. Industry Outlook Profile: Other. (2016). L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 18 22. Statistics Canada. Table 282-0125 - Labour Force Survey Estimates (LFS), employment by economic region based on 2011 Census boundaries and NAICS, annual (persons). 23. Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey, Labour force characteristics by industry for Canada, British Columbia and its’ economic regions for age 15 years and over, custom tabulation G1012_10.ivt. 24. WorkBC. 2025 Labour Market Outlook. (2016). 25. Ministry of Jobs Tourism and Skills Training - Labour Market Information. 2015-2025 Labour Market Outlook Occupation Supply and Demand for BC and Region. (2015). 26. Ministry of Jobs Tourism and Skills Training - Labour Market Information. 2015 - 2025 Labour Market Outlook Occupations Job Openings for BC and Region. (2016). 27. Merriam-Webster. Ingot. Merriam-Webster.com (2017). Available at: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ingot. (Accessed: 3rd October 2017) 28. WorkBC. Regional Profiles. (2017). Available at: https://www.workbc.ca/Labour-MarketIndustry/Regional-Profiles.aspx. (Accessed: 15th May 2017) L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 19 Appendix B - BC Manufacturing Sector NAICS & NOC Codes BC Manufacturing Sector NAICS Codes NAICS Description 311 Food manufacturing 312 Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing 313 Textile mills 314 Textile product mills 315 Clothing manufacturing 316 Leather and allied product manufacturing 321 Wood product manufacturing 322 Paper manufacturing 323 Printing and related support activities 324 Petroleum and coal product manufacturing 325 Chemical manufacturing 326 Plastics and rubber products manufacturing 327 Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing 331 Primary metal manufacturing 332 Fabricated metal product manufacturing 333 Machinery manufacturing 334 Computer and electronic product manufacturing 335 Electrical equipment, appliance and component manufacturing 336 Transportation equipment manufacturing 337 Furniture and related product manufacturing 339 Miscellaneous manufacturing Manufacturing Sector National Occupation Classification (NOC) Codes Referenced in Work BC Industry Outlook Profiles for fabricated metal product, food, beverage and tobacco, machinery, paper, primary metal, transportation equipment, wood product, and other.14–21 Code 0016 0111 0113 0211 0213 0601 0621 0631 0714 0811 NOC Occupation Senior managers - construction, transportation, production and utilities Financial managers Purchasing managers Engineering managers Computer and information systems managers Corporate sales managers Retail and wholesale trade managers Restaurant and food service managers Facility operation and maintenance managers Managers in natural resources production and fishing L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 20 Code 0911 1111 1121 1122 1123 1215 1221 1225 1431 1521 2121 2122 2131 2132 2133 2141 2142 2146 2171 2173 2174 2243 4163 5244 6221 6332 6342 6411 6421 6711 6731 6732 6733 7231 7233 7235 7237 7242 7272 7311 7315 7384 7452 7511 7611 7612 8614 9211 9213 NOC Occupation Manufacturing managers Financial auditors and accountants Human resources professionals Professional occupations in business management consulting Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public relations Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations Administrative officers Purchasing agents and officers Accounting and related clerks Shippers and receivers Biologists and related scientists Forestry professionals Civil engineers Mechanical engineers Electrical and electronics engineers Industrial and manufacturing engineers Metallurgical and materials engineers Aerospace engineers Information systems analysts and consultants Software engineers and designers Computer programmers and interactive media developers Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics Business development officers and marketing researchers and consultants Artisans and craftspersons Technical sales specialists - wholesale trade Bakers Tailors, dressmakers, furriers and milliners Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical) Retail salespersons Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations Light duty cleaners Specialized cleaners Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors Sheet metal workers Structural metal and platework fabricators and fitters Welders and related machine operators Industrial electricians Cabinetmakers Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors Other trades and related occupations, n.e.c. Material handlers Transport truck drivers Construction trades helpers and labourers Other trades helpers and labourers Mine labourers Supervisors, mineral and metal processing Supervisors, food, beverage and associated products processing L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 21 Code 9215 9227 9231 9235 9241 9243 9411 9412 9416 9418 9421 9422 9431 9432 9433 9434 9435 9436 9437 9442 9446 9461 9462 9463 9521 9522 9523 9526 9531 9532 9533 9536 9537 9611 9612 9614 9615 9617 9618 9619 NOC Occupation Supervisors, forest products processing Supervisors, other products manufacturing and assembly Central control and process operators, mineral and metal processing Pulping, papermaking and coating control operators Power engineers and power systems operators Water and waste treatment plant operators Machine operators, mineral and metal processing Foundry workers Metalworking and forging machine operators Other metal products machine operators Chemical plant machine operators Plastics processing machine operators Sawmill machine operators Pulp mill machine operators Papermaking and finishing machine operators Other wood processing machine operators Paper converting machine operators Lumber graders and other wood processing inspectors and graders Woodworking machine operators Weavers, knitters and other fabric making occupations Industrial sewing machine operators Process control and machine operators, food, beverage and associated products processing Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers Fish and seafood plant workers Aircraft assemblers and aircraft assembly inspectors Motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors and testers Electronics assemblers, fabricators, inspectors and testers Mechanical assemblers and inspectors Boat assemblers and inspectors Furniture and fixture assemblers and inspectors Other wood products assemblers and inspectors Industrial painters, coaters and metal finishing process operators Other products assemblers, finishers and inspectors Labourers in mineral and metal processing Labourers in metal fabrication Labourers in wood, pulp and paper processing Labourers in rubber and plastic products manufacturing Labourers in food, beverage and associated products processing Labourers in fish and seafood processing Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities L a b our Ma rket P rofile: Ma nu fa c tu r in g 22