oY Ps December 30, 1989 OPINION Better, but long way to go The remarkable changes sweeping through Eastern Europe during the last few weeks have happened so fast it’s hard to grasp sometimes that we are witnessing events which will indelibly stamp the year 1989 intothe history books along with other historical dates As the.decade draws td a close, the world can truly be thankful that the fall of Communist totalitarianism in the East Bloc has, with the exception of Romania, taken place with no bloodshed. Even the most diehard optimist WoUld have been hard-pressed in 1980 to predict a non-violent end to the Cold War as Ronald Reagan assumed the presidency of the United States and started a huge military buildup to defend the free world against the "Evil Empire” of the Soviet Union Some will argue that Mr. Reagan's flexing of U.S. military might is one reason the Soviets specifically Mikhail Gorbachev have been forced to rethink a ruble-for-dollar expenditure on weapons as their economy crumbles That may be, but Mr. Reagan's apparent willingness to play military brinkmanship with the Soviets earlier in the decade certainly raised some doubts that this world would survive to see the turn of the century Now, as the 1980s draw to a close, it's tempting to enter the 1990s on a wave of exuberance fuelled by the blossoming of freedom in Eastern Europe. But it's naive to think everything in the world is rosy..Ask_blacks-in South-Africa; ask the people who live in fear of death squads in Central America, ask the victims of repression in China, or ask the millions of people in the world who go hungry everyday There's no doubt the world's a better place now than it was at the'start of the decade, thanks to the easing of East-West tensions But folks, we've still got a long way to go Let's keep trying. Happy New Year Hey, Gorby may be the ‘ Man of the Decade for the 1980s... -..but at least I've chance at the 1990s title than Noriega and Ceausescu ot a better Letters to the editor Would-be Socred Keep eye on future leaders stay mum on ambitions VANCOUVER (CP) — Vander Zalm hasn't yet announced whether he'll step but that Premier Bill (member of the legislative assembly) that he can be. down, © Grace McCarthy, former cabinet hasn’t stopped people from handicap- pimg potential candidates in the race to succeed him “*As far as I'm concerned, the job is not open,” says Hope Rust, president of British Columbia’s governing Social Credit party Maybe not. But Vander Zalm has hinted it might be soon After losing the Socred stronghold of Oak Bay-Gordon Héad to the New Democrats in abyelection Dec. 13 the Socreds” sixth consecutive byelec tion toss — Vander Zalm said he would go on television and announce his wa = Political observers think pragmatists will advise him unless he wants to lead the Socreds to oblivion in the next election KEEPING MUM So far, all the would-be leaders are scrupulously observing the formalities and denying any interest in the job. But a queue will form quickly if Vander Zalm bows out There’s apparently no lack of politicians who believe they can save Social Credit — much as Vander Zalm did in 1986 when the party looked cer tain to sink under public disaffection with Bill Bennett, then pret Ben nett stepped down to allow the party to renew itself party to go, A lot of names are being bandied about, but the list of realistic prospdcts is fairly short * Bud Smith backroom. organizer Vander Zaim wave to a Kamloops in the 1986 election and was appointed attorney general last year Analysts consider him the front runner ma Smith ran for the leadership in ’86 but supported Vander Zalm after the second ballot. A political moderaté compared with Vander Zalm, Smith maintained his views without crossing the premier Author Socred the seat in longtime who rode David Mitchell, chronicler of the Socreds, thinks Smith would have the chance of rebuilding the party’s broad coalition that fractured under Vander Zalm “He's one of the who could attempt to revive the Ben nett traditions,” says Mitchell CONSIDER ODDS? Stan Persky, author of a recent book on Vander Zalm, thinks the 43-year old Smith may sit outthis round rather than preside over a potential disaster at the polls, “There's question whether he’s ready to take all this on,” says Persky, a political scientist. ‘*He’s very shrewd.”* For his part, Smith says his only am bition is to be the ‘*best darn MLA”’ an astute best few candidates some about minister and- Vander Zalm's nemisis since she ran third in the 1986 leader ship. She left cabinet last year when it looked as though shé would be her high-profile Economic Development Ministry Persky says she has the strongest Campaign organization in place and could attract women voters alienated by Vander Zalm’s anti-abortion views At age 62, McCarthy is also no long- term threat to others” leadership am bitions, says Persky. But she’s disliked by Vander Zalm loyalists and may be shunned by Socreds who want to avoid demoted from Sustainable development is defined in Webster's Dictionary as, ‘to keep in existence; maintain or prolong.”” Could we then say that the proposed expansion at the Celgar pulp mill is sustainable? Celgar has traditionally produced pulp, not paper, which is by all accoun ts the lowest common di in 1.5 kg/adt. However, when you remember that the mill will also more than double its pulp production, the real decrease will be only 33 per cent, Mr. Brown is quoted in the Dec. 23 edition of the Castlegar News in the ar- ticle. entitled ‘‘Alberta effects dif- ferent’ as saying, ‘‘What we're isan Wekind terms of production value and em- ployment. It is also traditional to see a lack of economic diversity in this region. What happens to all that pulp and the jobs associated with its tran- sformation into paper? Well, they get exported Now you can argue that some of that pulp is made into paper here in Canada and therefore is not being exported at all. But think, when your children need jobs where do they go? To the same places that a lot of that pulp gets expor ted to, and that will not produce longterm economic development in this region 2 of feel we might be on the side of the angels on this one.’” How appropriate that angels are most closely associated with the after life By some estimates, Brazil will be able to supply 60 per cent of the world market demand for virgin pulp by the 1990s. Brazil can mature a tree in eight to 12 years compared with our 400 years. That 60 per cent doesn’t include Australia, New Zealand, Africa, Cen tral and South America, and the Soutern U.S., all of whom can mature trees faster than we can Celgar has applied for a pulp wood hich would allow-+h a fractious convention McCarthy is being non-committal until Vander Zalm makes his move but says this: **One thing is, we’re not going to let the party go down the drain. I don’t think it’s as big a challenge as we think It’s personal credibility problem.”* © Mel Couvelier, finance minister and architect of British Columbia's balanced budget. The former mayor of the Victoria suburb of Saanich is said to be ambitious. But Persky, pointing to John Turner, notes that finance ministers rarely rise to the top job and succeed. FEWER HOPES Mitchell second stringers the other leadership prospects now in thecabinet * John Reynolds, environment minister and former Speaker: right wing and quite outspoken about it, he finished poorly in the 1986 convention * Rita Johnston, highways and transportation minister: a Vander Zalm cheerleader who during the recent byelection equated the NDP with the Communist Eastern Europe © Claude Richmond and Stan Hagen, respectively forests and regional and economic development both promise choices dismisses as regimes of ministers inoffensive com Former Socred Kim Campbell also gets mentioned, She broke with Van. der Zalm over abortion and ran federally last Already federal minister of state for Indian and nor. thern affairs, she’s on the Tory. fast track and unlikely to give that up for a dubious future in provincial politics Then Vancouver Mayor Gordon Campbell, seen as an outside savior, a politician with mode But he’s not even in the party and would be hard to draft, says Ken Carty, a political scientist at University of British Columbia “I once asked his wife what she thought about it horrified,”’ says Carty year there's consensus ate views. and she was RS Castlégar News MENABER OF THE 8.C. PRESS COUNCK PUBLISHER — Burt Campbe EDITOR — Simon Birch PLANT FOREMAN ADVERTISING MANAGER OFFICE MANAGER CIRCULATION MANAGER Heather Hadiey It is estimated that the current pulp process produces less than one job per tonne of pulp produced at Celgar per day. The new expanded mill will more than double its present daily produc tion. However, there will only be 30 new jobs and that is only possible That means Célgar will now employ less than half a person per tonne. Some people will point out the 1,200 construction jobs that will be created Unfortunately, these jobs will not con tribute to the longterm economic growth of this region. What they will do is to put an enormous strain on this community’s resources and then leave And what of the sustainability of the kraft-pulp process itself? If it’s so great, why has Sweden changed over to a full oxygen bleaching system, a process that doesn’t create dioxins, furans and other organochlorines? I'm sure Mr. Jim Browne, the mill’s general manager, will point out that the state-of-the-art mill will produce much less pollution and finally be a ‘Class A”’ mill. Celgar will cut its organic chlorinates from 4.8 kilograms per air-dried metric tonne (adt), which is the present output, to new cut trees above and beyond the annual allowable There is in_ this agreement no requirement for Celgar toreplant the clearcut areas. Now Mr. Browne will tell you that this pulp wood agreement is only a safety valve in case Celgar’s wood chip supply is interrupted. He will tell you that they will only be taking tops, lim bs, decadent timber and trees cut to thin existing reforested areas. But remember, this is the same company that closed its woodroom, costing 30 families their only source of income, because it cost too much to keep open Now do you believe they will go out in to the bush and gather up what would otherwise be burned as slash as well as thinning and selective logging? Did you know that the Regional District of Central Kootenay is preparing a recycling program for im- plementation as well as using recycled paper? Do you know that the residents of the Kootenays collectively produce 99,752.89kg of waste paper every day and that doesn’t include in- dustrial waste paper? Did you know that recycled paper requires 43 per cent less energy, 7,000 fewer gallons of cut Toll-free axed AS you are aware, a referendum was conducted area recently to determine whether or not Castlegar (365) telephone customers would like one-way extended area service to the Trail (364/368) exchange Results of the referendum indicated that only 35 per cent of Castlegar customérs are in favor of having one- way extended area service to Trail Prior to seeking approval from the Canadian. Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, B.C. Tel is required to obtain an affir- in your mative vote from a majority (50 per plus one) of ‘the telephone customers who voted in the referen- dum. We will therefore be unable to proceed with this plan Of the 4,322 ballots that were mailed, 2,695 valid ballots were retur ned and colinted. Of those, 913 were in favor of having one-way extended area service to Trail Don R. Lauder District Customer Service Manager Nelson cent Murders not ref TORONTO (CP) — A majority of Canadians see no connection between the Montreal massacre of 14 women and violence against women in general, suggests a poll released this week Six in 10 people surveyed believe the incident was a random act by an insane person and has nothing to do with at titudes in society, suggests a poll con ducted .by Angus Reid for Southam News. But close to four in 10 of those polled view the Dec. 6 massacre, in which thé gunman railed about feminists as he fired on his targets at the University of Montreal, as a sym. ptom of widespread male violence against women Overall, 37 per cent of respondents said the tragedy reflects male violence toward women in general, while 59 per cent said it does not The poll of 1,501 Canadian-adults was conducted between Dec. 13 and Dec. 21. Such a poll is considered ac curate within 2.5 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time The poll asked: ‘Do you think this tragedy says anything about problem of male violence women?” People with university education were, at 42 per cent, more likely to see wider implications in the shooting. The towards the." water per tonne, creates 75 per cent less air pollution and 35 per vent less water pollution-to~ produce than conven- tional virgin fiber? Did you know that recycled paper creates more jobs than the virgin pulp produced at Celgar. I can already hear the critics say, “There's no market for those produc- ts." As usual they are wrong. Did you know that the ‘only mill producing recycled pulp in Canada sells all of its product to its American parent com- pany, The Chicago Tribune? Did you know that Canada imports $40 million in recycled unbleached paper produc- ts? Did you know that U.S. federal, state, county, and city governments will soon be giving preferential treat- ment to bids for paper that are made from recycled fiber? It seems to me that if the people of this region want to ensure their own economic development and environ- mental protection, they will have to do edition of the Castlegar News, Mr Browne is quoted as saying in the story “Group wants project info,” “It would make our job easier if they would represent the population,”’ referring to the coalition group formed to gather information on Celgar’s proposed expansion. So what can we do? First, write a let- ter to Premier Bill Vander Zalm requiring public meetings before the work at Celgar can begin. Second, require the federal, provincial, regional and city governments to begin changing over to chlorine-free recycled paper. Third, buy chlorine-free recycled paper whenever you can and ask your retailers to stock these products. Fourth, require the federal government to set standards defining what unbleached, chlorine-free and recycled paper is. Fifth, require Celgar to use all the waste paper it can get in the production of unbleached recycled pulp With these steps we will be able to ensure that all Canadian pulp mills will become sustainable. Darcy Suehn Castlegar Economic forecasts mixed By LARRY WELSH The Canadian Press Chances ‘are there will be more Canadians out of work in 1990, prices ‘on store shelves won't increase as quickly as they did in '89, and taxes will goup And the cost of borrowing money will probably remain expensive, economists generally agree. But they differ’ widely on whether high interest rates and spreading weakness in the economy will push the country into a recession “The big question is how much the Canadian economy will slow down during late 1989, and whether this will bring a mild recession,”’ James Frank, chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada, said in a recent sur- vey of forecasters, While economists argue about the answer, most think that John’Crow, governor of the Bank of Canada, will play the most important role in determining whether the economy grows or shrinks in 1990. Crow has kept interest rates high to fight inflation. The painful side-effect isa slowing economy WON'T HIT ALL Workers at East Coast fish plants and employees’ in Ontario car plants and manufacturing firms could end up bearing the brunt of a sluggish economy, said Ted Carmichael, senior economist at Burns Fry Ltd. But if you're working at a business management firm in Vancouver, chan- ces are you'll barely notice the bumpy ride ahead for the economy, he added Up to mid-year, British Columbia had accounted for half of all the new jobs created in Canada and most workers were hired in service in- dustries. Nickel workers in Sudbury, Ont., should also be able to rest easy, despite falling metal prices. Resource companies went through painful layoffs during the last recession and have kept their em- ployment levels low. So there shouldn’t be another flood of pink slips in resource industries, Car- michael said ™~ According to the technical definition, a recession occurs when the economy contracts for two con- of a recession is more layoffs, tough times for doing business and con- sumers who are reluctant to open their wallets LOWING Although economists disagree about whether there will actually be a recession, most believe the economy will slow sharply in '90, increasing unemployment and cooling inflation The Canadian economy has been a star performer for the last two years, adding jobs at a faster pace than any other major industrial country and growing faster than any economy ex- cept Japan's “We expect the Canadian economy to continue to expand . . . with no recession anticipated Before the end of 1990,""| Marc Meagher, chief economist at Merrill Lynch Caypda Inc., said in an investment report./ But “‘over the next year we &pect growth tocontinue to slow.” A forecast from investment dealer Wood Gundy Inc. is bleaker “Canadians should prepare for a disappointing economic performance in the next two years,”” Wood Gundy said “A of policy restraint Please address all Letters to the Editor to: The Castlegar News, P.O. Box 3007, Castlegar B.C. VIN 3H4, or deliver them to our office at 197 Columbia Avenue, Castlegar should ypewritien double-spaced arid not longer thon JU words Letters must be signed and include the writer s tull name and address. Only in very exceptional cases will letters be published without the writers nome Nevertheless, the name and address ot the writer mus! be disclosed to the editor Ihe Castlegar News reserves the right to edit letters tor brevity, clarity, legohty ond grammar at home with a slowdown in the economies of our trading partners will eat‘into our incomes and undermine the buoyancy we have exhibited for so long.”’ CROW’S WAR Perhaps the most painful restrint for Canadians has been Crow’s single minded determination to wrestle in flation to the ground with high interest rates. “What we've seen is economic growth slowing, but obviously not enough” to bring inflation and interest rates down, said Mike McCracken, president of Informetrita Ltd., an Ot tawa-based economic research firm lective poll also suggests that among women aged 18 to 34 years, the proportion of those who see wider implications rises to.47 percent The women killed — all but one of them students at the’ University of Montreal engineering school — were shot or stabbed by Marc Lepine, described as anti-social and the product of a violent father who treated jwomen as servants The poll also asked if gun laws should be changed to make it more dif ficult for people to purchase deadly weapons. It suggests 72 per cent of Canadians want it made more difficult while 26 per cent do 1161 E ; company presidents and workers all want to know when Crow will believe he has done enough tocontrol inflation and when he will let interest rates fall The short answer is no one really knows “It's a toss-up,”" said Doug Peters, chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank Peters believes Canada will skirt recession in 1990 and short-term i terest rates will fall about two percen tage points by the middle of the ) car But Peters is the first to admit that there is a Very thin marein of error in his forecast. “*Any hiccup could put that growfh forecast into a negative figure “You could easily have a recession in the last quarter (of "89) and first quarter (of '90) or dufing the first half (of "90)."* BUSINESS SS Castlegar December 30, 1989 New year brings tax hikes OTTAWA (CP) — As if it wasn't enough to worry about January bills and your deflated wallet after the holidays, Finance Minister Michael Wilson will help ring in the new year with another round of tax increases. This time taxes are scheduled to go up on gasoline and building materials, while farmers will get a rebate on some of the tax paid on fuel extended for another year Ottawa will also ask cOmpanies to make a new year's resolution to pay their taxes promptly and more money will be collected by changing the way laundry detergents are taxed. The changes were included in Wilson’s budget last April, but don’t take effect until Monday. If you think your tax headache is bad this New Year's, wait until Jan. 1, 1991 That's when Wilson is scheduled to replace the existing 13.5-per-cent federal sales tax hidden in the price of manufactured products with his proposed seven-per-cent goods and services tax. Federal taxes will go up on a broad range of goods and services that aren't taxed under the existing levy. This year, Wilson will increase the excise tax on gasoline by one cent a litre effective New Year's Day, collecting an additional $320 million for the federal government. BUILDS THE COFFER The construction sector will also contribute more to federal coffers. The existing federal sales tax on con- struction material and equipment used for building will be increased to nine per cent from eight per cent, collecting another $250 million, Farmers, fishermen, loggers, miners, hunters and trappers will get a tax break in 1990. They'll stop getting a rebate on ex- cise tax paid on fuel used in off- highway production. But they’ll receive a federal sales tax rebate for another year, worth 3.5 cen- ts a litre of fuel for farmers and three cents a litre for other resource producers. Wilson had planned to eliminate the rebate in 1990, and extending it for another year will cost about $125 million in lost federal revenues. In one small tax wrinkle, the federal government will pick up an additional $10 million by taxing laundry detergent at the wholesale level instead of the manufacturing level. Tax collectors will also. ask com- panies to pay their taxes promptly in MICHAEL WILSON . .- looks for revenue 1990, resulting in a one-time $350- million revenue increase. In the past, the federal government considered corporate taxes paid if they were mailed first class by the due date, even though the money might not be received until several days past the due date In 1990, company taxes will be con- sidered paid only if they’re actually Yeah, sure. pieces. vices at Royal Trust in Toronto: saving.”” in Burlington, Ont By ROBCARRICK The Canadian Press The beginning of a new year is the perfect time to start controlling your finances more responsibly. Such advice can make you want to holler with frustration when you've got a stack of holiday-season debts on your desk. But it’s never too late to pick up the Seven personal finance experts were asked to suggest New Year’s resolutions to improve the average person’s financial standing. Here’s what they said: © Jeff Halpern, director of private banking ser- “Forget about that plastic, or consider it only for emergencies. ““Come the new year, most people are up to their ears in consumer debt. This is the biggest impediment to © Brian Costello, a personal finance expert based : ‘Manage your mortgage better.”” Costello says he expects interest rates to fall two percentage points in the first half of 1990. If he’s right, it means going for a short-term mortgage now because as interest rates fall, you should be able to renew at a lower Experts offer advice your principal savings. Planning especially something. The faster you pay off your mortgage, the lower the interest charges you'll pay * David Chilton, author of The Wealthy Barber guide to money management and a personal finance ex- pert based in Kitchener, Oni plan instead of a budget, which never works. Chilton advises automatically scooping 10 per cent from your take-home pay and putting it away as © Warren Baldwin, senior consultant Executive Estate Services in Toronto: 5 financial planning right now, rather than putting it off **People generally don’t think about their finances until April (tax time). Then they do their taxes and don’t think about their finances until the next year © Timothy Egan, president of T.E in Toronto: when you “Treat yourself like a business,” Egan says. ‘Plan your financial life more precisely so that you do things with a foreknowledge of what you are trying to accom- plish rather than acting on the spur of the moment * Tom Delaney, a personal finance expert in *Rely ona forced savings tart your Financial spontaneous buying, can’t afford to buy Curb really received by the federal government on time — late or deficient payments will be subject to interest charges. CHANGES THE RULES The finance minister will case regulations concerning” how often some companies with small payrolls must send taxes deducted from their employees’ paycheques to the gover- nment, reducing federal revenues by $80 million. Companies deducting more than $15,000 a month on average of tax from their workers were to send the money to the federal government up to four times a month in 1990, depending on the number of paydays inamonth That compared to up to twice a mon: thin 1989, But Wilson decided in the last budget that about 36,000 companies with small payrolls will still only have to send the money to the federal gover- nmegt twice a month in 1990. All told, the total bill for tax in- creases effective in 1990 and those im- posed previously comes to $6.95 billion for the fiscal year ending March 31,1991 That compares to spending cuts in the last budget of $2.079 billion for 1990-91 Canadians can look forward to even more tax increases in the future. Wilson has already announced taxes will be going up on New Year's Day, 1991, to help lower his proposed goods and services tax to seven per cent from nine per cent He'll raise taxes on large cor- porations and wealthy Canadians, and he’ll also eliminate a planned tax break for middle-income people, increasing federal revenues by about $1.1 billion. The finance minister will also keep federal taxes the same on gasoline, alcohol and tobacco in 1991 Taxpayers still have to face Wilson's next budget, expected in February The finance minister has already hinted it will be tough as the federal government struggles to reduce its an- nual deficit When Wilson cut his proposed goods and services tax just before Christmas, fe said high interest rates and inflation are putting pressure on the government’s deficit outlook for next year The finance minister predicted last April that the deficit would fall to $28 billion in 1991-91 from $30.5* billion for 1989-90. Tate. another,"’ says Costello payments instead of 12 “And there'll be a lot of competition out there for mortgages, so you can play one institution off against ¢ Henry Zimmer, a chartered accountant and tax expert in Calgary: Make an extra mortgage payment at some point during the year so that you end up with 13 That extra payment reduces Toronto: ‘‘Instinctively, I'd say maximize your RRSP but judging by figures that show that over 50 per cent of tax- payes contributeto RRSP.” Delaney also suggests that for any purchase you make, whether it be financial products or consumer goods, shop the market for the best deal rather than making a quick buy based on convenience. contributions, everyone seems to know that, SEASONS GREETINGS From All of Us at Castlegar Saving (C5) = HOLIDAY HOURS Sunday, December 31 CLOSED Monday, January 1 CLOSED Tuesday, January 2 8:30 a.m. toS p.m. SX. Castlegar News baal All the Best Wishes for a Joyous Holiday Season and a year of health and happiness! A special thank you to all my friends, clients and readers eal ni °Fstate WITH BARRY BROWN OVER NIGHT SERVICE HOLIDAY SPECIAL 2nd Set of Prints ony *4 95 + at time of developing + 35 mm or 110 negatives only * good to January 5th, 1996 PORTRAITS and CAMERAS Lid. 1106-3rd Street Castlegar 365-7515 Weekly stocks TORONTO (CP) — Stock prices moved ahead in both Toronto and New York on the last trading day of 1989 in a rally that some analysts said showed an optimistic investor market Despite a low volume, the Toronto Stock Exchange's 300 composite index rose 37.55 points to close at 3,969.79 for a 32.6-point gain on the week and a 17-per-cent gain for the year. Over the decade, the index rose about 186 per cent The Dow Jones average of 30 in duiStrials rose 20.90 Friday to 2,753.20, extending its gain for the week to 41.81 points. January learance IN LADIES & FABRICS DEPT. In 1989, the Dow average. climbed 584.63 points, or about 27 per cent capping a rise for 1,914.46 points, or about 228 per cent On other Canadian markets, the Montreal portfolio index rose 18.91 points to close the year at 2,030.83 for a gain of 23.64 points on the week the decade of The portfolio index gained about 19 per cent in 1989. The Vancouver Stock Exchange rose 9.14 points to close at 713.71, a 9.91-point gain on the week Fa LCON PAINTING & DECORATING 2649 | casTLeGAR vIn 28! TRAK, BC 364-0202 TOLL FREE 1-800-663-2966 MAVE YOU DRIVEN A FORO vare.y -3334 . FORD 2795 wicHway one VIR 271 FOURTH SALES LTD. = PAUL DEVLIN 367-6585 Starts Tues., Jan. 2 % OFF Department Store 1217-3rd St., Castlegar * 365-7782