State of Climate Adaptation Regional District of Kootenay Boundary – Area A APPENDIX – CLIMATE DATA March 2020 DECEMBER 2019 Table of Contents About the Climate Data .......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Technical Information ............................................................................................................................................................. 3 Historic and projected average annual temperature ............................................................................................................. 1 Historic and projected average spring temperature .............................................................................................................. 2 Historic and projected average summer temperature ........................................................................................................... 3 Historic and projected average fall temperature ................................................................................................................... 4 Historic and projected average winter temperature .............................................................................................................. 5 Historic and projected annual number of days over 30 oC ..................................................................................................... 6 Historic and projected number of summer days over 30oC ................................................................................................... 7 Historic and projected annual number of days with maximum temperature over 90th percentile in the 1961-1990 period ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 8 Historic and projected number of summer days with maximum temperature over 90th percentile in the 961-1990 period ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 9 Historic and projected annual number of daily freeze-thaw cycles ..................................................................................... 10 Historic and projected number of daily freeze-thaw cycles in winter .................................................................................. 11 Historic and projected growing season length ..................................................................................................................... 12 Historic and projected growing degree days ........................................................................................................................ 13 Historic and projected total annual precipitation................................................................................................................. 14 Historic and projected total spring precipitation.................................................................................................................. 15 Historic and projected total summer precipitation .............................................................................................................. 16 Historic and projected total fall precipitation....................................................................................................................... 17 Historic and projected total winter precipitation ................................................................................................................. 18 Historic and projected maximum 1-day precipitation .......................................................................................................... 19 Historic and projected maximum dry spell length ................................................................................................................ 20 Historic and projected annual precipitation above the 95th percentile in the 1961-1990 period ....................................... 21 Historic and projected number of days of precipitation above the 95th percentile in the 1961-1990 period ..................... 22 This appendix is additional climate data that supports the State of Climate Adaptation for the Regional District of Kootenay Boundary Area A. Please refer to the full report for more detail. About the Climate Data Climate data for RDKB Area A locations were provided by Climatic Resources Consulting, Inc. and come from two main modeling sources. Technical information is presented below. Climate projections for the 2050s in this report include two scenarios: low carbon and high carbon. Climate projections for the 2050s indicate the average for the 2041-2070 period. The low carbon scenario (RCP4.5) is considered to be optimistic and, although insufficient to maintain global temperatures to below 2°C warming above pre-industrial temperatures, would require significant international cooperation that exceeds current commitments of signatories to the Paris climate agreement.1 The high carbon scenario (RCP8.5) is also referred to as ‘business as usual’. Global emissions are still moving along a trajectory that could lead to 3 to 5°C of global warming by the end of the century, highlighting the significant gap between the emission reductions pledged by Paris Agreement signatories and the reductions required to meet the 2°C global target.2 Consequently, it is important to also consider the high global emissions scenario (RCP8.5) in planning for climate change in the Columbia Basin and Boundary regions. Climate trends, i.e. rates of change, are expressed in units per century, meaning the change per 100 years. Technical Information Historical climate data was prepared using climate reanalysis ERA5.3,4 Climate reanalyses combine past observations with models to generate consistent time series of multiple climate variables.5 They provide a comprehensive description of the observed climate as it has evolved during recent decades, on 3D grids at sub-daily intervals. The estimates are produced for all locations on earth, and they span a long time period that can extend back several decades or more. Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data (AHCCD) from Environment Canada provides long-term (since the early 1900s) observed data. For total annual precipitation, data from climate stations in Creston, Kaslo, Castlegar, Fauquier, Warfield and Grand Forks was referenced in addition to ERA5 data. Climate projections are based on output from an ensemble of 12 statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) projections6 from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5),7 and downscaled using Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping recording8 to a resolution of 10 km by 10 km. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are numbered (e.g. RCP8.5 or RCP4.5) according to the radiative forcing in W/m2 that will result from additional greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century. Modellers use RCPs to generate scenarios of future climate. The following plots provide further insights on historic and projected climate for Area A. Seasons are defined as follows:     Spring = March, April, May Summer = June, July, August Fall = September, October, November Winter = December, January, February Historic and projected average annual temperature Figure 1.1 Fruitvale Figure 1.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 1.3 Columbia Gardens 1 Historic and projected average spring temperature Figure 2.1 Fruitvale Figure 2.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 2.3 Columbia Gardens 2 Historic and projected average summer temperature Figure 3.1 Fruitvale Figure 3.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 3.3 Columbia Gardens 3 Historic and projected average fall temperature Figure 4.1 Fruitvale Figure 4.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 4.3 Columbia Gardens 4 Historic and projected average winter temperature Figure 5.1 Fruitvale Figure 5.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 5.3 Columbia Gardens 5 Historic and projected annual number of days over 30 oC Figure 6.1 Fruitvale Figure 6.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 6.3 Columbia Gardens 6 Historic and projected number of summer days over 30oC Figure 7.1 Fruitvale Figure 7.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 7.3 Columbia Garden 7 Historic and projected annual number of days with maximum temperature over 90th percentile in the 1961-1990 period Figure 8.1 Fruitvale Figure 8.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 8.3 Columbia Gardens 8 Historic and projected number of summer days with maximum temperature over 90 th percentile in the 961-1990 period Figure 9.1 Fruitvale Figure 9.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 9.3 Columbia Gardens 9 Historic and projected annual number of daily freeze-thaw cycles Figure 10.1 Fruitvale Figure 10.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 10.3 Columbia Gardens 10 Historic and projected number of daily freeze-thaw cycles in winter Figure 11.1 Fruitvale Figure 11.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 11.3 Columbia Gardens 11 Historic and projected growing season length Figure 12.1 Fruitvale Figure 12.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 12.3 Columbia Gardens 12 Historic and projected growing degree days Figure 13.1 Fruitvale Figure 13.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 13.3 Columbia Gardens 13 Historic and projected total annual precipitation Figure 14.1 Fruitvale Figure 14.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 14.3 Columbia Gardens 14 Historic and projected total spring precipitation Figure 15.1 Fruitvale Figure 15.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 15.3 Columbia Gardens 15 Historic and projected total summer precipitation Figure 16.1 Fruitvale Figure 16.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 16.3 Columbia Gardens 16 Historic and projected total fall precipitation Figure 17.1 Fruitvale Figure 17.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 17.3 Columbia Gardens 17 Historic and projected total winter precipitation Figure 18.1 Fruitvale Figure 18.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 18.3 Columbia Gardens 18 Historic and projected maximum 1-day precipitation Figure 19.1 Fruitvale Figure 19.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 19.3 Columbia Gardens 19 Historic and projected maximum dry spell length Figure 20.1 Fruitvale Figure 20.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 20.3 Columbia Gardens 20 Historic and projected annual precipitation above the 95th percentile in the 1961-1990 period Figure 21.1 Fruitvale Figure 21.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 21.3 Columbia Gardens 21 Historic and projected number of days of precipitation above the 95th percentile in the 19611990 period Figure 22.1 Fruitvale Figure 22.2 Kelly Creek Watershed Figure 22.3 Columbia Gardens 22 1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2019). The Paris Agreement. Retrieved from https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement 2 Knutti, R., Rogelj, J., Sedláček, J. et al. (2016). A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target. Nature Geoscience, 9, 13–18. doi:10.1038/ngeo2595 3 European Centre for Mid-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). ERA5 data documentation. Retrieved from https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/CKB/ERA5+data+documentation#ERA5datadocumentation-Introduction 4 Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). (2017). ERA5: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate. Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store (CDS), Accessed August 2019. https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home 5 Climate Change Service. (n.d.). Climate reanalysis. Retrieved from https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-reanalysis 6 Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. (n.d.). Statistically downscaled GCM scenarios - BCCAQv2. Retrieved from https://data.pacificclimate.org/portal/downscaled_gcms/map/ 7 Taylor, K.E., Stouffer, R.J., and Meehl, G.A. (2012). An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 485–498. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1 8 Werner, A.T. and Cannon, A. J. (2016) Hydrologic extremes – an intercomparison of multiple gridded statistical downscaling methods. Hydrololgy and Earth System Sciences, 20, 1483-1508. doi:10.5194/hess-20-1483-2016 23