prognostication particularly for three-to to two days — but the reliability. of { (80 plus days) has not improved and p hover will according to climatologist Brian Sagar of the geography) department at Simon Fraser University. “Weather balloons, satellites and number-crunching| computers have given us access to a lot more infor- mation,” says Sagar, “but even numerical weather ‘pre-| diction models coupled with historical data ean't tell enough about the complex interactions between air, sea, land and ice surfaces of the earth. “And modern man himself is added to the mix be- cause our use of technology is also influencing weather patterns. The variables are virtually infinite.” Sagar feels that Cs and may have adversely affected their profedmigpal image in recent years by succumbing to public demand for simplistic forecasts that are made to sound definitive. “Many people think of weather systems as large organized masses of air and clouds which move predictably around the globe under the constant surveil- lance of sophisticated satellite sensor: “This perspective begs the question, ‘if weathermen can see exactly what's happening why should forecasts so often miss the mark?’ What people do not realize is that a large system may contain many unrecognized smaller disturbances that can develop rapidly and produce’ totally unpredictable clouds and rain when the forecast was for sunny skies, or vice versa.” Sagar explains that modern weather prediction is based on manual and machine analysis of computer-pro- duced charts that show the developed high and low pres- sure patterns in the atmosphere. “Weather prediction grids commonly involve thou- sands of square kilometres so on the large scale a forecast could be totally accurate but within each of these grids ‘The reliability of long term forecasts has not improved and perhaps never will’ small disturbances, some contained in only a few square kilometres, can quickly change the speed and intensity of large recognized systems. “In such cases the small disturbance can halt over a populated area to give the impression that the weather- man is balmy in the not-so-complimentary sense of the word.” So why not use much smaller grids? “At the present time there is a problem of machine capability, or more specifically, the inability of computers to handle the vastly increased amount of data which such a change would produce. The costs, both in terms of human and financial resources would be astronomical and even'if the resources were committed the payoff may be 1 given the unpredictability of systems within systems.” Sagar says many people are also under the mis- conception that there are meteorological stations all over the place with people busily feeding information into some giant computer programmed to make instant analyses. “Actually there are only 20 synoptic reporting stations in B.C. and almost all of these are located in populated areas below 1,000 metres. And to the west, where most of our weather comes from, there are no stations, only data derived from satellite ‘eyes in the sky’.” ~ Sagar says other factors, or “weather linkages” are becoming better understood but that they still lend a factor of unpredictability to forecasting. “For instance, seemingly random changes in the atmospheric pattern over B.C. and the adjacent Pacific could result in a period of prolonged cold temperatures. This type of occurrence can be followed by a series of unusual years. “The atmosphere itself doesn’t have a memory but other physical factors connected to the atmospheric system can serve as surrogate memories. For example, a cold year would make for lower ocean surface temper- atures which would directly modify the atmospheric con- ditions by causing anomalous air pressures, wind directions, moisture content and so on. “Such interactions may, by affecting the energy budget of the earth's atmospher, bring about subtle and not-so-subtle changes in climate. But sometimes it's impossible to pinpoint the actual cause or causes of the climatic variability.” And if the aforementioned complexities aren't enough, Sagar says there's more. “Sunspot activity may contribute to unexpected and unpredictable variations. Others cite modification of atmospheric energetics caused by industrial pollution, in- créasing carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere, and natural events such as severe volcanic eruptions as con- tributing to change at the most basic meteorological levels.” Stressing that he is by no means negative about advances in weather forecasting, Sagar says it is obvious that science and human observation have led to a fairly high degree of accuracy in prognostication. “We know that meteorologists are right about 80 per cent of the time if you look at the large picture. But given the number of variables and allowing that the complex interactions of natural and manmade forces seem beyond man’s comprehension, it's likely tht we will never be capable of 100 per cent accuracy. “Some of my colleagues may disagree, but f{'m not so Ontario universities how much other universities across the country will raise their tuition fees next fall. But officials at B.C. uni- versity.of Western Ontario in versity of Alberta, where the with the rest of the country,” said Petch. He said such increases could result in large numbers of students leaving the prov- ince to attend other univer- ‘ies and reduce the already- went up 10.3 pere cent last year and 31.8 per cent the year before). DISCOVERY sure I don't prefer a certain amount of unpredi in the weather. Think about it.” Sandra Kay's The Shop For The Larger Lady 50% oF WINTER CLEARANCE continues thru Pébruary 119S. Oak, Colville (509) 684-6926 STORE HOURS Monday to Saturday ]9:30 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. Thursday and Friday 9:30 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. What do you es you ctoss Cupid with Scrooge? Bay’s Valentine of Value: Discovery Day! That's right, the Bay's huge one day ing sensation is back. Banishing season blues with savings in almost every department of every Bay store. fashions So, affair to remember. . . at the Bay! . THURSDAY ONLY AT ALL BAY STORES Ste ‘PERSONAL SHOPPING ONLY, PLEASE. 191 Columbia Ave, . brands of Outdoor Equipment. HENNE’S MARINA Castlegor 365: 3219 OLDER MODEL FRIDGE & STOVE Suitable for summer cabin Wood cookstove, claw foot bathtub, Hoover Spin/washer 365-6052 evenings. 365-2800 eye. tin YAMAHA electric organ. 17 c. ft white fri . 365-: 9 DYNASTAR 170 cm (1977) LTD. SALES & SERVICE FEBRUARY SPECIAL 75ORx16 Tubeless LT is Byer... SHBG 7OORx15 8-Play Tupelo LT Radials 1245° Installed and Bolonced! Split rims $10 extra. 24 Nature’s 4 Pantry wit Me RU WERKS ° Parts * Service SNOW TRAIL: SALES & SERVICE 502 - 12th Ave., Genelle 693-2382 For Better or For Worse by Lynn Johnston HIGH Savings Rates LOW Loan Rates Morigoges. ) Kootenay Savin, Credit Union CASTUGAR AND SOUTH SLOCAN BOSTON WHALER, Champion, Carlson, Mercury Outboards, Trailers, Super low now for spring. Deliv or call Bill ot Mas Sixth St., Burnaby. 112- or left curves. Write: Fi 33147 South Fraserway, Abbot- stord, B.C. V2S 281. 112-059. / CREDIT UNION ————— TWO 13” RADIAL all-season tires ‘on mags in excellent condition. 365-5714. 7/10 FREE ELECTRICITY from solar SATELLITE SYSTEMS iro 5330 jure £3) Imperial Shuswap Solar Products L1d., Box B.C. VOE 2V0. wn /VO $29/month. Dealer inquiries welcome. Phone 112-430-4040. 0 COMMUNICATIONS RECEIVER tess tha Listen to Russian Gospel Program on 6000 kHz 365-5687 joors, available. Sanderson indus! Lid., 310 Harbour Avenue, North V7G 2E9. 112-985 0 AUDIO-MATE mini-porta a c/ credible pr ¥ cheque/M.O. IREWOOD, delivered. 362 ae 2) royincial dining room 5 Lh PHOTOCOPYING WEDDING STATIONERY GENERAL PRINTING SK cf Prints 623 Columbia Avenue a 285-6385_ SIDES OF PORK, CUT WRAPPED. Sides of A-1 beet, frants and hinds. Free delivery every Tuesday. Newdan Farms, Creston, 112-428-9901 or 365- 5662 tn/93 ° New & Used Furniture . Household Items AUCTIONS FUNDRAISING! Does your organization need $$$? Our products available ery of this quality unit. Program One, P.O. Box 817, Fraser Lake, B.C. VOJ 180. BROKE but Ke st . to Beautiful Stonework. Needs 710 orders tor 3,000 copies (or orders thor of Guide signment Shop, Street. Bargains, books, babies. 3/10 for 30,000 square feet of stone) to help get it published. Orders will be shipped C.0.D. A.5.A.P Retail $9.95 with discounts for wholesale orders. C (tre, Box 486 used. 365-5455 or 365-5212, Den- tone Centre, ni 3/8 C. 112-357-9515 onc WORLD'S FINEST CHOCOLATE, 895 Viney Road, North Van couver, B.C. V7K 1A6. 112-984. 100. \RTIN'S TV REPAIRS: Se all makes of TV's. We ma calls. Reasonable sates jew Subdivision). 365-5349 tin/91 er one with attractors’ veka cole, Kmvetto os Rewer yet > SUPER LOCATION. Five bedroom deluxe, home oltering privacy. hot water heating. two fireploces. © view ond much more. Price reduced. CLIENT WITH: "WANTS TO BUY: USE AS DOWN PAYME! OR TRADE FOR: Large fully finished home with covered pool. (UL WHITLEY ‘Smaller home in Castlegar OFFICE HOURS Mon. through Fri. 9a.m.-6p.m. Saturday 9a.m.-5 p.m. LOTS& ACREAGE 19 Acres — Shoreacres Treed, level land, bordering the highway with secondary road access. Excellent for private retreat or subdivision. 365-2487 CASTLEGAR'S FINEST. Over 2, of luxury living includin tioning, seune. BRAND NEW super o Coder home in beoutitul Beautiful 14’x70' mobile home in Genetle. Late model car. Smoller home in or near Castlegar. pa . Priced at only $49,000. Pass Creek Acreage Two ocres of beautiful country Good land Now only Smaller two or three bedroom in Castlegor. Williconsider handyman’s special. educed from $18,900 to $14,900. % acre sloping lot with southern Three bdrm home on 100'x230° gorden lot in : Residence: 365-3423 Good home, smaller lot in-Castlegar. MODERATELY PRICED with access to bock of property. the low price of $87,000. A must fo yee! NEW LISTINGS 6 ACRES IM ROBSON with two small houses ond two trailer pods. Excellent revenue possibilities, building sites. Good Hal. Priced tor quick sale ot $25,000. to all h aditar th Ele 4 time bor spring building. Call vs. ily home ie ‘on a large lot in tor Tocoted South Costlegor. Siding. windows ond root hove bear 000. bol a. 162 ACRES. Excellent holding and LET YOUR PROPERTY PAY FOR ITSELF rented tor $850 per month. 2 BEDROOM HOME on fon- riverview lot, Features include ter suite with room North Castlegar Trailer lot for $15,500. 10th Avenue South Level lot close to school. 1,440 sq. ft. home on a corner lot in Blueberry. BRAD WALSH, Residence: 365-8054 Small house or building lot. Newly decorated three bdrm home on 2.38 acres. [DON WICKETT. Residence: 365-3703 Smoller home in Costlegor. _Blusberry, Genelle or Trail. South Castlegar Large lot close to pool and school. $18,500. Krestova 3.58 actes, $17,500. Pass Creek Two acres, $17,000. if ‘Non-basement 2 bdrm home. huge lot, 10th Ave. South. BEV. i. Residence: 365-3703 Larger homein Robson, Castlegar or Blueberry. ‘ass Creek 1.94 acres, $19,000. Upper Fairview Five acres, $44,900. Young family home, 2 bdrms pp . In Robson. BRAD WALSH, 14'x70' mobile home. Throms Commercial bat geoord frontage for a store or? Only $16,500. Call Helen. Taste of Country Living is large s bres Soom 3bdems., irge lot, two 5 immaculate shape. 359,900, PETER BLA’ 4 3 bdrm condominium. North Castlegar, 5 &drms, fartily home, great shape. $59,500, Truck, cosh and assume firs! Priced at $20,000. 29 Acres 29 plus acres situated 4 km from Salmo. This acreage hos been subdivided registered) into five 5% acre parcels. Suitable for comp- round, trailer park or hobby form. This is an except property with lots of potential. Vendor will consider finan- cing. Chicken Delight Building lof on Columbia Avenue located next to Dixie Lee Fried Chicken. - Name Your Terms 94’ 154" Uj bordering Columbia Avenue. Zoned comprehensive. Flexible tinancing. Call Bev. MOBILE HOME. 14'x79" elmo! new ond in mint Rood just outeide city Vienits. includes oll tive appliances ot $29,900. ot Sndutted ot 20000 eck oot ie Ps FLAT, CLEARED [OT overtooking fluence of Columbia end Kootenoy Rivers. POST AND BEAM. Lorge fou: bdrm home with full 4-plece ensuite ond rec room. Special leatures included @ hested louar ‘ond on 600 59. ft. workshop. ‘sell immedrorely ot $42,900. TWO ACRES of the choicest rivertront in the Kootenays. immaculate, home, two water sources fastic view. Must sell, only $44,900! Selling? : List with ™ 8 mont Birches troller pock, this cony, two bdrm home is priced ot only $12. Very quiet ores. woter. Five ecres in homes Ho! Trail, Call te view then make on WOODED COUNTRY SETTING wut: on oreo of line Cont the sellers! Be Sure To Listen To RADIO REAL ESTATE on CKQR at 9:10 a.m.4